Probabilistic estimates of future changes in California temperature and precipitation using statistical and dynamical downscaling

Sixteen global general circulation models were used to develop probabilistic projections of temperature (T) and precipitation (P) changes over California by the 2060s. The global models were downscaled with two statistical techniques and three nested dynamical regional climate models, although not all global models were downscaled with all techniques. Both monthly and daily timescale changes in T and P are addressed, the latter being important for a range of applications in energy use, water management, and agriculture. The T changes tend to agree more across downscaling techniques than the P changes. Year-to-year natural internal climate variability is roughly of similar magnitude to the projected T changes. In the monthly average, July temperatures shift enough that that the hottest July found in any simulation over the historical period becomes a modestly cool July in the future period. Januarys as cold as any found in the historical period are still found in the 2060s, but the median and maximum monthly average temperatures increase notably. Annual and seasonal P changes are small compared to interannual or intermodel variability. However, the annual change is composed of seasonally varying changes that are themselves much larger, but tend to cancel in the annual mean. Winters show modestly wetter conditions in the North of the state, while spring and autumn show less precipitation. The dynamical downscaling techniques project increasing precipitation in the Southeastern part of the state, which is influenced by the North American monsoon, a feature that is not captured by the statistical downscaling.     

Diffuse CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> degassing at Vesuvio,Italy

At Vesuvio, a significant fraction of the rising hydrothermal–volcanic fluids is subjected to a condensation and separation process producing a CO₂–rich gas phase, mainly expulsed through soil diffuse degassing from well defined areas called diffuse degassing structures (DDS), and a liquid phase that flows towards the outer part of the volcanic cone. A large amount of thermal energy is associated with the steam condensation process and subsequent cooling of the liquid phase. The total amount of volcanic–hydrothermal CO₂ discharged through diffuse degassing has been computed through a sequential Gaussian simulation (sGs) approach based on several hundred accumulation chamber measurements and, at the time of the survey, amounted to 151 t d^–1. The steam associated with the CO₂ output, computed assuming that the original H₂O/CO₂ ratio of hydrothermal fluids is preserved in fumarolic effluents, is 553 t d^–1, and the energy produced by the steam condensation and cooling of the liquid phase is 1.47×10¹² J d^–1 (17 MW). The location of the CO₂ and temperature anomalies show that most of the gas is discharged from the inner part of the crater and suggests that crater morphology and local stratigraphy exert strong control on CO₂ degassing and subsurface steam condensation. The amounts of gas and energy released by Vesuvio are comparable to those released by other volcanic degassing areas of the world and their estimates, through periodic surveys of soil CO₂ flux, can constitute a useful tool to monitor volcanic activity.Editorial responsibility: H. Shinohara     

Shoshonite and sub-alkaline magmas from an ultrapotassic volcano: Sr–Nd–Pb isotope data on the Roccamonfina volcanic rocks,Roman Magmatic Province,Southern Italy

The Roccamonfina volcano is characterised by two stages of volcanic activity that are separated by volcano-tectonic caldera collapses. Ultrapotassic leucite-bearing rocks are confined to the pre-caldera stage and display geochemical characteristics similar to those of other volcanoes in the Roman Province. After the major sector collapse of the volcano, occurred at ca. 400 ka, shoshonitic rocks erupted from cinder cones and domes both within the caldera and on the external flanks of the pre-caldera Roccamonfina volcano. On the basis of new trace element and Sr–Nd–Pb isotope data, we show that the Roccamonfina shoshonitic rocks are distinct from shoshonites of the Northern Roman Province, but are very similar to those of the Neapolitan volcanoes. The last phases of volcanic activity erupted sub-alkaline magmas as enclaves in trachytic domes, and as lavas within the Monte Santa Croce dome. Ultrapotassic rocks of the pre-caldera composite volcano are plagioclase-bearing leucitites characterised by high levels of incompatible trace elements with an orogenic signature having troughs at Ba, Ta, Nb, and Ti, and peaks at Cs, K, Th, U, and Pb. Initial values of ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr range from 0.70926 to 0.70999, ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd ranges from 0.51213 to 0.51217, while the lead isotope rations vary between 18.788–18.851 for ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb, 15.685–15.701 for ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb, and 39.048–39.076 for ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb. Shoshonites show a similar pattern of trace element depletions and enrichments to the earlier ultrapotassic leucite-bearing rocks but have a larger degree of differentiation and lower concentrations of incompatible trace elements. On the other hand, shoshonitic rocks have Sr, Nd, and Pb isotopes consistently different than pre-caldera ultrapotassic leucite-bearing rocks. ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ranges from 0.70665 to 0.70745, ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd ranges from 0.51234 to 0.51238, ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb ranges from 18.924 to 19.153, ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb ranges from 15.661 to 15.694, and ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb ranges from 39.084 to 39.212. High-K calc-alkaline samples have intermediate isotopic values between ultrapotassic plagioclase leucitites and shoshonites, but the lowest levels of incompatible trace element contents. It is argued that ultrapotassic magmas were generated in a modified lithospheric mantle after crustal-derived metasomatism. Interaction between the metasomatic agent and lithospheric upper mantle produced a low-melting point metasomatised veined network. The partial melting of the veins alone produced pre-caldera leucite-bearing ultrapotassic magmas. It was possibly triggered by either post-collisional isotherms relaxation or increasing T°C due increasing heat flow through slab tears. Shoshonitic magmas were generated by further melting, at higher temperature, of the same metasomatic assemblage with addition 10–20% of OIB-like astenospheric mantle material. We suggest that addition of astenospheric upper mantle material from foreland mantle, flowing through slab tearing after collision was achieved. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Star formation in the starburst cluster in NGC 3603

We have used new, deep, visible and near infrared observations of the compact starburst cluster in the giant HII region NGC 3603 and its surroundings with the WFC3 on HST and HAWK-I on the VLT to study in detail the physical properties of its intermediate mass (∼1–3 M_⊙) stellar population. We show that after correction for differential extinction and actively accreting stars, and the study of field star contamination, strong evidence remains for a continuous spread in the ages of pre-main sequence stars in the range ∼2 to ∼30 Myr within the temporal resolution available. Existing differences among presently available theoretical models account for the largest possible variation in shape of the measured age histograms within these limits. We also find that this isochronal age spread in the near infrared and visible Colour-Magnitude Diagrams cannot be reproduced by any other presently known source of astrophysical or instrumental scatter that could mimic the luminosity spread seen in our observations except, possibly, episodic accretion. The measured age spread and the stellar spatial distribution in the cluster are consistent with the hypothesis that star formation started at least 20–30 Myrs ago progressing slowly but continuously up to at least a few million years ago. All the stars in the considered mass range are distributed in a flattened oblate spheroidal pattern with the major axis oriented in an approximate South-East–North-West direction, and with the length of the equatorial axis decreasing with increasing age. This asymmetry is most likely due to the fact that star formation occurred along a filament of gas and dust in the natal molecular cloud oriented locally in this direction.     

Gentrification as space domestication. The High Line Art case

In this paper, we critically examine the role of artistic locational choices and practices in the context of gentrification processes in urban renewal contexts. We characterize gentrification as a form of domestication of space, and explore the extent to which artistic choices and practices relate to such process with reference to the deontological dilemma of legitimization within the art system vs. responsible empowerment of vulnerable local constituencies. We illustrate our argument with an analysis of the High Line Art project, and show how this can be considered as a textbook example of art-driven space domestication leading to brutal forms of gentrification. We comment on the threat that this provides to the social credibility of artistic practices as an agency of responsible social change.     

An ensemble approach for the analysis of extreme rainfall under climate change in Naples (Italy)

In the present paper, an ensemble approach is proposed to estimate possible modifications caused by climate changes in the extreme precipitation regime, with the rain gauge Napoli Servizio Idrografico (Naples, Italy) chosen as test case. The proposed research, focused on the analysis of extremes on the basis of climate model simulations and rainfall observations, is structured in several consecutive steps. In the first step, all the dynamically downscaled EURO‐CORDEX simulations at about 12 km horizontal resolution are collected for the current period 1971–2000 and the future period 2071–2100, for the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5 concentration scenarios. In the second step, the significance of climate change effects on extreme precipitation is statistically tested by comparing current and future simulated data and bias‐correction is performed by means of a novel approach based on a combination of simple delta change and quantile delta mapping, in compliance with the storm index method. In the third step, two different ensemble models are proposed, accounting for the variabilities given by the use of different climate models and for their hindcast performances. Finally, the ensemble models are used to build novel intensity–duration–frequency curves, and their effects on the early warning system thresholds for the area of interest are evaluated.     

Cretaceous deformation of the southern Central Andes: synorogenic growth strata in the Neuquén Group (35° 30′–37° S)

The Neuquén Group is an Upper Cretaceous continental sedimentary unit exhumed during the latest Miocene contractional phase occurred in the southern Central Andes, allowing a direct field observation and study of the depositional geometries. The identification of growth strata on these units surrounding the structures of the frontal parts of the Andes, sedimentological analyses and U–Pb dating of detrital components, allowed the definition of a synorogenic unit that coexisted with the uplift of the early Andean orogen since ca. 100 Ma, maximum age obtained in this work, compatible with previous assignments and constrained in the top by the deposition of the Malargüe Group, in the Maastrichtian (ca. 72 Ma). The definition of a wedge top area in this foreland basin system, where growth strata were described, permitted to identify a Late Cretaceous orogenic front and foredeep area, whose location and amplitude contrast with previous hypotheses. This wedge top area was mostly fed from the paleo‐Andes with small populations coming from sources in the cratonic area that are interpreted as a recycling in Jurassic and Lower Cretaceous sections, which contrasts with other analyses performed at the foredeep zone that have mixed sources. In particular, Permian sources are interpreted as coming directly from the cores of the basement structures, where Neopaleozoic sections are exposed, next to the synorogenic sedimentation, implying a strong incision in Late Cretaceous times with an exhumation structural level similar to the present. The maximum recognised advance for this Late Cretaceous deformation in the study area is approximately 500 km east of the Pacific trench, which constitutes an anomaly compared with neighbour segments where Late Cretaceous deformations were found considerably retracted. The geodynamic context of the sedimentation of this unit is interpreted as produced under the westward fast moving of South America, colliding with two consecutive mid‐ocean ridges during a period of important plate reorganisation. The subduction of young, anhydrous, buoyant lithosphere would have produced changes in the subduction geometry, reflected first by an arc waning/gap and subsequently by an arc migration that coexisted with synorogenic sedimentation. These magmatic and deformational processes would be the product of a shallow subduction regime, following previous proposals, which occurred in Late Cretaceous times, synchronous to the sedimentation of the Neuquén Group.     

Kinematics and significance of a poly-deformed crustal-scale shear zone in central to south-eastern Madagascar: the Itremo–Ikalamavony thrust

International Journal of Earth Sciences - Across the crystalline basement of Madagascar, late Archaean rocks of the Antananarivo Block are tectonically overlain by Proterozoic, predominantly...     

Stream Restoration Performance and Its Contribution to the Chesapeake Bay TMDL: Challenges Posed by Climate Change in Urban Areas

In large part driven by total maximum daily load (TMDL) mandates, the restoration community in the Chesapeake Bay region has been implementing novel best management practices (BMPs) and stream restoration designs in urban areas, such as regenerative stream/stormwater conveyance (RSC) structures and stream-wetland complexes (SWCs). However, the nutrient and sediment reduction efficiencies of these novel designs are virtually unknown, and the possibility of increasing riverine flow in the Chesapeake Bay watershed associated with climate change this century necessitates an evaluation of their performance to develop and utilize those that optimize reductions in nutrient and sediment fluxes. We compare pre- and post-construction loads (total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), and total suspended solids (TSS)) from RSCs (i.e., upland BMPs) and a SWC (i.e., stream restoration) constructed at the outflow of a highly developed watershed in the Coastal Plain physiographic province of Maryland. The largest of the two RSCs performed best in relation to expected nutrient and sediment reductions because of superior water retention capability. By the length of river reach restored, the SWC attained from 79 to 88% of its N reduction TMDL goal, but only 19 to 23 and 2.7 to 3.1% for TP and TSS, respectively; by watershed area, % attainments of TMDL goals were much lower. Results indicate that SWCs have the potential to curtail N loading from developed catchments, but additional water quality benefits may be limited. Climate change projections indicate that there will be an increased frequency of larger-volume storms that will result in an increase in stormflow runoff from urban areas, and increased pollutant loads will likely curtail potential gains made by efforts to achieve TMDL goals. Given the large-scale implementation of BMPs currently underway to accommodate the Chesapeake Bay TMDL, the restoration community needs to adopt a concerted strategy of building climate resilience into many types of urban BMPs to help attain and maintain loads at TMDL levels in anticipation of a progressively wetter climate throughout this century.